Sunday, October 19, 2008

'Bear' Market's been the only Reality and How???

In April 2006, the Sensex scaled the 12,000 mark for the first time ever and this has been the pivot point for the Indian Stock market eversince. Infact, over the last 31 months since this historical peak was first conquered, we have had the Sensex revisiting the 12,000 odd mark almost as a reality check in as many as 22 months out of the last 31 months. Therefore, approx. 71% and a whopping majority of the overall time in the ensuing period was spent around 12,000. Evidently, Sensex levels between 13,000 to 21,000 was merely an over-hyped aberration. Fundamentally, if at the current index level of 9,975 the Sensex PE stands at 12.60 (per reports in financial dailies), at the pivot level of 12,000 the PE was at a more realistic and reasonable level of around 15. That being so, between 13,000 - 21,000, the PEs were in the high-end of the illusionary range of 17- 27, and therefore, lacked sustainability. In the overall scheme of things, markets have many a time in my experience swung between extremes. After having done so, it is almost magnetically pulled towards the plausible levels (12,000 in our case) most of the times - as evidenced above - with Micro and Macro factors acting as catalysts. I trust the markets to surely have a way of correcting the excesses too after having often over-stretched itself on either side - but can we ever live to see the last of it ? Take a call !

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